Week 10 Waiver Wire Pickups

Green Bay's starter broke his finger in the first quarter Sunday. The back who replaced him ran for a touchdown, and he's free in 13 of the 17 leagues we checked. New England lost both of its top backs. New Orleans has a new one. Three backfields opened at once, and that's where the money goes this week.

The deadline passed at 4pm, and Jonathan Taylor stayed in Indianapolis. That settles Seth McGowan: he's a handcuff, not a claim. Josh Downs went to Kansas City and Keenan Allen to San Francisco, and nothing left in the Colts' receiver room is worth a claim.

We checked rosters in 17 leagues our members have connected. When you see "free in 13 of 17," that's where the number comes from. These leagues run deep, about 209 rostered players each versus roughly 190 in a standard 12-team league, so if yours is shallower, more of these are free.

Points are half-PPR. Share prices are Tuesday's board. Claims run Wednesday morning. Commanders at Giants is Thursday night, and Patriots at Lions is the 9:30am ET international game Sunday, so set those early. The Bears, Broncos, Eagles and Buccaneers are on bye.

The 20-second version

• Kaleb Johnson, RB, GB. FAAB $8. Exchange $2.66. 14 carries, 68 yards and a touchdown after Josh Jacobs broke his finger. Free in 13 of 17.

• Audric Estime, RB, NO. FAAB $6. Exchange $16.86. 15 carries and a touchdown in his first game as a Saint. Free in 14 of 17.

• Corey Kiner, RB, NE. FAAB $5. Exchange $4.09. Both backs ahead of him are hurt. He starts Sunday. Free in 10 of 17.

• DeMario Douglas, WR, NE. FAAB $4. Exchange $14.18. 9 targets, 102 yards. Second straight week over 12. Free in 8 of 17.

• Caleb Douglas, WR, MIA. FAAB $3. Exchange $18.96. 74% of the snaps, 8 targets. Free in 8 of 17.

That's priority order, not price order. None of these five play Thursday. Kiner and DeMario Douglas play the 9:30am game Sunday.

These bids assume you still have budget. If you're down to your last $20, the order matters more than the number: Johnson, then Estime, then stop.

Probably rostered, but check: Omar Cooper Jr. is free in 2 of 17. If he's on your wire, he's a $5 claim. C.J. Stroud is free in 4 of 17 after five touchdown passes.

The reasons are below.

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Last week's book

Every ranked claim this season, eight emails, 40 names: 17 misses, 17 pushes, 6 hits. Waiver claims are long shots by design. If a player were a sure thing, he wouldn't be on the wire. A hit is when the points arrived (roughly 12 or more in half-PPR), a push is when the role held but the points didn't, and a miss is neither. A push usually means the claim worked and the week didn't.

Everything else we graded here, the holds, dips, sells and the probably-rostered names: 65 calls, 43 right, 22 wrong.

Last week's ranked five: 1 miss, 4 pushes, no hits.

• Miss: Mike Washington Jr. 34% of the snaps, 6 carries, minus 0.3 points. Ashton Jeanty took the job back. We had him second at $10. That one's on us.

• Push: Tyler Allgeier. 96% of the snaps and 17 carries. The job is his. The points weren't there, 5.6.

• Push: Adonai Mitchell. 89% of the snaps and 7 targets. Zero catches.

• Push: Dylan Sampson. 64% of the snaps, 6 targets, 8 carries, 6.3.

• Push: Antonio Williams. 84% of the snaps, 6 targets, 4.0.

The next four went 1 hit, 2 pushes, 1 miss. Hit: DeMario Douglas (9 targets, 102 yards, 12.7). Pushes: Ryan Flournoy (98% of the snaps, 3 targets, 6.3) and Seth McGowan (6 carries and a touchdown, 10.7). Miss: Mike Gesicki (47% of the snaps, 2 targets, 2.1).

Off the ranked list:

• Right: Kenneth Walker III, buy the dip. 102 yards and three touchdowns, 34.3 points. His share went from $18.16 to $23.66.

• Right: Jonah Coleman, probably rostered. 77% of the snaps, a touchdown, 16.8.

• Right: the cuts. Emanuel Wilson, TreVeyon Henderson and MarShawn Lloyd didn't record a stat. Mark Andrews scored 2.9. Jacoby Brissett didn't play for Arizona. Then Baltimore traded for him, and now he's starting. More on that below.

• Right: Emmett Johnson, not chasing. 30% of the snaps, 9.4.

• Right: Chris Godwin, not defending him. 3 targets, 3.8.

• Right: A.J. Brown, wait for a practice. He didn't play again.

• Right: Tyler Bass, the kicker. 13 points.

• Wrong: Braelon Allen and Rachaad White, probably rostered. 4.4 and 5.9, each with a lost fumble.

• Wrong: Jonathan Taylor, buy the dip. 13 carries, 6.9, another lost fumble.

• Wrong: the quarterback streams. Gardner Minshew 7.0 and Geno Smith 7.4. No touchdown passes between them.

• Wrong: Kyle Monangai, still holding. A fourth straight week without a line. He's in Sell / Drop now.

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Buy: ranked claims ($100 FAAB)

Our projections lag a role change by about a week, so we use them as a ceiling on the bid, not a forecast. Johnson's and Kiner's projections haven't caught up to the new jobs yet, so we lead with the usage.

1. Kaleb Johnson, RB, GB. FAAB $8. Exchange $2.66.

The usage: 39% of the snaps, 14 carries, 68 yards, a touchdown, 12.8 points. He was a healthy scratch the two weeks before.

The opening: Josh Jacobs broke his right ring finger in the first quarter and has surgery this week. Green Bay hasn't ruled out IR, which would mean at least four games. The best report we've seen says up to three weeks. Who's coming back: Chris Brooks has been practicing off IR and could be activated this week, and MarShawn Lloyd (knee) could return too. Both are better on passing downs, so Johnson is the early-down back, not a three-down one. Pierre Strong actually played more snaps Sunday (46%), but he ran 8 times for 22 yards. The carries went to Johnson, and carries are what you're claiming. His share nearly doubled from $1.37. If Green Bay puts Jacobs on IR, make it $10. One more risk: Green Bay was shopping for a back with Jacobs out and didn't trade for one, but they can still sign one. If they do before your claim runs, cut this to $4.

Free in 13 of 17. Vikings at Packers, Sunday 1pm ET.

2. Audric Estime, RB, NO. FAAB $6. Exchange $16.86.

The usage: 47% of the snaps, 15 carries, 72 yards, a touchdown, 14.2 points, in his first game with the Saints. Alvin Kamara played 49% as the change-of-pace back.

The opening: New Orleans claimed him off waivers a week ago, and he led the backfield right away. Who's coming back: Travis Etienne is eligible to come off IR, but his practice window isn't open yet, and the word on this week is "we'll see." If Etienne practices Wednesday, cut the bid to $2. The share doubled from $8.67, so don't pay it. Updated projection 5.6 a game.

Free in 14 of 17. Panthers at Saints, Sunday 1pm ET.

3. Corey Kiner, RB, NE. FAAB $5. Exchange $4.09.

The usage: 18% of the snaps, 8 carries, 55 yards, a touchdown, 11.5 points. Small role so far, which is why this is $5 and not $10.

The opening: Rhamondre Stevenson is out the next few weeks with a tendon issue behind his knee. TreVeyon Henderson hasn't practiced since Oct. 28 and has no timeline. That leaves Kiner as the starter, with Lan Larison behind him. Who's coming back: Stevenson, maybe in Week 12. New England is on bye in Week 11, so this is one start, then a bye, then a question.

Free in 10 of 17. Patriots at Lions, Sunday 9:30am ET, so set him Saturday night.

4. DeMario Douglas, WR, NE. FAAB $4. Exchange $14.18.

The usage: 68% of the snaps, 9 targets, 5 catches, 102 yards, 12.7 points. The week before was 15.1. That's two straight weeks over 12.

The opening: A.J. Brown has missed two games with the knee and is still questionable. Mack Hollins is back and played 68% too, so Douglas isn't alone. If Brown practices in full, cut the bid to $2. Updated projection 7.3 a game.

Free in 8 of 17. Patriots at Lions, Sunday 9:30am ET.

5. Caleb Douglas, WR, MIA. FAAB $3. Exchange $18.96.

The usage: 74% of the snaps, 8 targets, 6 catches, 70 yards, 10.0 points. The week before was 86% and 6 targets.

The opening: nobody's hurt and nobody's coming back. He's had the job two weeks running and the targets went up. The share is expensive, so claim him and skip the share. Updated projection 7.0 a game.

Free in 8 of 17. Dolphins at Colts, Sunday 1pm ET.

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Probably rostered. Claim him if he's free.

• Omar Cooper Jr., WR, NYJ. Free in 2 of 17. FAAB $5. Exchange $14.16. 86% of the snaps and 11 targets, 9.8 points, a week after zero targets. Garrett Wilson missed Sunday with a concussion. Bills at Jets, Sunday 1pm ET.

• C.J. Stroud, QB, HOU. Free in 4 of 17. 384 yards, five touchdowns, 36.4 points. Texans at Browns, Sunday 1pm ET.

If those five are gone

In this order.

• Tank Dell, WR, HOU. FAAB $2. Exchange $9.29. 9 targets, 105 yards, a touchdown, 18.5, but on 47% of the snaps. Houston moved him into the starting lineup on its depth chart this week. Four receivers split the work, so this is $2. Free in 9 of 17. Texans at Browns, Sunday 1pm ET.

• Darren Waller, TE, CAR. FAAB $2. Exchange $8.54. 10 targets, 8 catches, 90 yards, a touchdown, 19.0. Tommy Tremble played more snaps (70% to 53%), so the targets may not repeat. Free in 14 of 17. Panthers at Saints, Sunday 1pm ET.

• Justice Hill, RB, BAL. FAAB $2. Exchange $6.05. 52% of the snaps, 85 yards on 9 carries, a touchdown, 16.7. Derrick Henry played 50%. It's a split. Free in 13 of 17. Chargers at Ravens, Monday 8:15pm ET.

• Stash: Chris Brooks, RB, GB. FAAB $1. Practicing off IR. If he's activated, he's the passing-down back while Jacobs is out. Free in 16 of 17.

Also on the board

• Dart: Tutu Atwell, WR, LAR. FAAB $1. Puka Nacua is out with the knee. Davante Adams is already on IR. Atwell drew 5 targets on 47% of the snaps. Somebody has to catch the ball. Free in 15 of 17. Rams at Cardinals, Sunday 4:05pm ET.

• Quarterback, if you need one: Drew Lock, SEA. He starts again with Sam Darnold out. 12.6 points last week, no interceptions this season. Free in 12 of 17. Seahawks at Raiders, Sunday 4:05pm ET.

• Quarterback, 2QB leagues: Jacoby Brissett, BAL. We told you to cut him last week. Baltimore traded for him, and he's starting Monday night against a winless Chargers team. Free in 8 of 17.

• Kicker: Trey Smack, K, GB. FAAB $1. 16 points Sunday. Free in 14 of 17. Vikings at Packers, Sunday 1pm ET.

Where we differ

• MarShawn Lloyd. We told you last week to cut him unless you had Josh Jacobs. Now Jacobs is hurt, and the other lists have Lloyd near the top. If you kept Lloyd because you have Jacobs, keep holding him. If he's on your wire (free in 8 of 17), we'd still take Johnson first: Lloyd's knee kept him out Sunday, he's questionable again, and his last game was 16% of the snaps. If Lloyd practices in full Wednesday, he's worth $3 behind Johnson.

• Seth McGowan. The other lists had him first among backs at $7 to $10, waiting on the deadline. Taylor stayed. McGowan played 31% of the snaps behind him, so he's a $1 handcuff if you have the bench spot.

• Kaelon Black. The other lists have him at $7 to $10. He ran 11 times for 70 yards, but on 25% of the snaps in a blowout, and Christian McCaffrey had 18 carries and 21.7 points with no injury tag. Black is a good handcuff. That's $2 if you have the room, not a starter's bid. Free in 6 of 17.

• Emmett Johnson. The other lists have him at $5 to $10. 30% of the snaps, 6 carries, 9.4 points, while Kenneth Walker scored three times. Still not chasing. Free in 5 of 17.

• Pat Bryant, WR, DEN. The other lists have him second among receivers at $5 to $10. Nice game: 68% of the snaps, 5 targets, a touchdown, 13.6. But Denver is on bye this week. If you have a bench spot, $2 for Week 11 is fine. Don't pay starter money for a week he can't play. Free in 13 of 17.

• Tank Dell, not Kayshon Boutte. Both lit it up Sunday. Boutte scored more (26.5) on 5 targets and 33% of the snaps, with two touchdowns. Dell drew 9 targets and moved into the starting lineup. We'll pay for targets over one big game. Boutte is free in 13 of 17 if you want the dart.

• Chig Okonkwo, TE, WAS. The other lists have him first at tight end. We had him two weeks ago. Last week: 74% of the snaps, 7 targets, 6 catches, 8.7. He's questionable with a hip. If you have him, hold. If you need a tight end, Waller first, Okonkwo second. Free in 12 of 17.

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Trade for / buy the dip

• Ashton Jeanty, RB, LV. Exchange $11.01, down from $14.35. His snaps went from 40% to 64% as he took the job back from Washington. 13 touches, 4.5 points. The work came back before the points did. Updated projection 11.9 a game. Raiders host the Seahawks, Sunday 4:05pm ET.

• Jameson Williams, WR, DET. Exchange $13.76, down from $17.68. 83% of the snaps, the same as the week before, but only 2 targets and 4.5 points after 15.0. Updated projection 9.9 a game. Lions host the Patriots, Sunday 9:30am ET.

• Tucker Kraft, TE, GB. Exchange $6.22, down from $9.07. 82% of the snaps and 3 targets, 1.4 points, in a game his quarterback threw for 372 yards. The week before was 14.3. Updated projection 8.7 a game. Vikings at Packers, Sunday 1pm ET.

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Sell / Drop

• Mike Washington Jr., RB, LV. We had him second last week. His snaps fell from 60% to 34%, 6 carries, and Jeanty got the job back. His share fell from $3.16 to $2.08. If you need the room for Johnson or Estime, he can go.

• Devin Singletary, RB, NYG. Only if you grabbed him for Sunday's 21 carries. Cam Skattebo is "full go" Thursday. Cut him.

• Mike Gesicki, TE, CIN. 47% of the snaps and 2 targets, 2.1 points. The two touchdown weeks didn't repeat. Cut him if you need the spot.

• Not a cut: Tyler Allgeier, RB, ARI. 96% of the snaps and 17 carries. Nobody else in Arizona is touching the ball. Hold him.

• Not a cut: Josh Jacobs, RB, GB. If you have an IR slot, use it. He's back this season.

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On the Exchange

Kaleb Johnson's share nearly doubled, and at $2.66 it's still the cheapest of this week's new starting backs. Estime already doubled to $16.86, so the cheap entry on him is gone. If you're buying one share this week, buy the job that just opened.

See the board

For the group chat

Kaleb Johnson. Josh Jacobs is out, and he's free in 13 of 17. Claim him Wednesday.

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Connect your league

If you haven't yet, connect your league. It takes about a minute. Then the Coach answers with your roster and your wire, so "is he available?" has a real answer instead of a guess. It's also how we built this week's list: the leagues members have connected told us who's really still out there.

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Earnings Season: Week 10

Ten questions went up at noon. Estimates lock Sunday at 1pm ET. Thursday night and the 9:30am international game aren't on the slate.

Make your estimates

Open Field

Thursday night is Commanders at Giants, and Sunday starts with Patriots at Lions at 9:30am ET. Challenge a friend for Week 10 now. Every player locks at his own kickoff, so the Thursday and early Sunday guys go first, and you can keep swapping everyone else until Monday night.

Play Open Field