Calibration ledger

Sharp labels every prop lean Elite, Strong, or Lean based on the size of the edge. A label only means something if a bigger edge actually wins more often — this page tracks that, in the open, against every real result. No cherry-picking, no quiet deletions.

The 2026 season's ledger is empty so far — picks are graded as each NFL week settles. Check back once the season kicks off.

How this is graded

Every lean tracked from the Sharp props board is recorded at pick time — the line, our number, and the conviction tier that number implied — before the game is played. Once actuals land, we grade the pick against the real box score. Closing-line value grades the pick against where the market ultimately settled, a separate check that holds up even in small samples where win/loss record alone is noisy.

Sharp subscribers see this same ledger broken out for their own tracked picks, alongside the full props board.