Five Undervalued Quarterbacks Poised to Outperform Their ADP
Analysis for week of May 26, 2025
The quarterback position continues to evolve in fantasy football, with the gap between elite options and streaming candidates narrowing each season. While securing a dual-threat QB early can provide a significant weekly advantage, our Assistant Coach analysis has identified several late-round options with legitimate top-12 upside. These quarterbacks are currently being drafted outside the top 15 at the position but possess the skills, supporting cast, and opportunity to deliver significant return on investment.
1. Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts
After a promising but injury-shortened rookie season followed by an up-and-down sophomore campaign, Richardson has fallen out of favor with many fantasy managers. Currently being drafted as the QB16, the athletic phenom is being significantly undervalued based on his rushing upside and improved supporting cast.
Richardson's rushing ability provides an elite fantasy floor, as he averaged 7.2 carries and 51.3 rushing yards per game in his 12 full contests last season. While his passing efficiency remains a work in progress (58.7% completion rate in 2024), the addition of rookie WR Adonai Mitchell and the continued development of Josh Downs gives Richardson his most talented receiving corps to date.
Our Assistant Coach projection model, which heavily weights quarterback rushing production, forecasts Richardson as a top-10 fantasy QB with legitimate top-5 upside if his passing efficiency takes even a modest step forward. The third-year leap for athletic quarterbacks has historically been significant, making Richardson the perfect high-upside target in the double-digit rounds.
2. Bo Nix, Denver Broncos
Nix's rookie season was a tale of two halves. After struggling through his first eight games (averaging just 14.7 fantasy points per game), the former Oregon star found his footing in the season's second half, averaging 19.3 fantasy points over his final nine starts. This late-season surge has been largely overlooked by the fantasy community, as Nix is currently being drafted as the QB19.
What makes Nix particularly appealing is his dual-threat ability, which became more apparent as his rookie season progressed. In the final six games of 2024, Nix averaged 6.8 rushing attempts and 42.3 rushing yards per game, adding four rushing touchdowns during that span. This rushing production provides a stable floor that many late-round quarterbacks lack.
The arrival of offensive coordinator Mike Kafka from Kansas City should further boost Nix's fantasy outlook. Kafka's creative play-calling and emphasis on quick, rhythm-based passing plays aligns perfectly with Nix's skill set. Our film study also revealed significant improvement in Nix's deep ball accuracy late in the season, suggesting untapped upside in the vertical passing game.
With a full offseason as the unquestioned starter and a supporting cast that includes emerging talents like Courtland Sutton, Marvin Mims Jr., and tight end Terrance Ferguson, Nix offers tremendous value at his current draft position.
3. Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers
Young's disastrous rookie season has created one of the largest buy-low opportunities in recent fantasy memory. The former first overall pick is currently being drafted as the QB24, reflecting the fantasy community's complete loss of faith following his struggles in 2024 (11.2 fantasy points per game, 31st among qualified quarterbacks).
However, our Assistant Coach analysis identifies several reasons for optimism. First, the Panthers' complete overhaul of their coaching staff, bringing in innovative offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, should provide Young with a more quarterback-friendly system. Dorsey's work with Josh Allen in Buffalo demonstrates his ability to develop young quarterbacks and create explosive offensive schemes.
Second, Carolina's significant investment in the offensive line through both free agency and the draft should address the protection issues that plagued Young throughout his rookie season. Young was pressured on an unsustainable 43.7% of his dropbacks in 2024, the highest rate in the league.
Finally, the additions of veteran wide receiver Diontae Johnson and rookie Xavier Legette give Young his most talented receiving corps to date. Our projection model, which heavily weights coaching changes and offensive line improvements, forecasts Young as a potential top-15 quarterback with significant upside beyond that if all breaks right.
While Young lacks the rushing upside of Richardson and Nix, his pedigree and the Panthers' commitment to building around him make him an intriguing last-round flier in deeper leagues.
4. Michael Penix Jr., Atlanta Falcons
Penix enters the NFL with one of the most NFL-ready arms in recent draft history, and while he begins the season behind Kirk Cousins on the depth chart, our Assistant Coach analysis suggests he could make a fantasy impact sooner than most expect. Currently going undrafted in many leagues, Penix represents a high-upside stash with potential league-winning upside.
The Cousins signing initially dampened enthusiasm for Penix's 2025 outlook, but several factors point to potential opportunity. First, Cousins is returning from an Achilles injury at age 37, raising legitimate durability concerns. Second, the Falcons' aggressive trade up to select Penix at eighth overall signals their long-term commitment to the rookie.
Most importantly, our film study of Penix at Washington reveals a quarterback with elite arm talent and surprising mobility within the pocket. His ability to push the ball downfield aligns perfectly with Atlanta's receiving corps, featuring vertical threats like Drake London, Darnell Mooney, and Kyle Pitts.
While drafting Penix requires patience, the potential reward is significant. If he takes over the starting role at any point, he would immediately have QB1 upside thanks to Atlanta's elite skill position talent and quarterback-friendly system under offensive coordinator Zac Robinson.
5. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
Unlike the previous options, Stafford doesn't offer significant upside through rushing production or untapped potential. What he does provide is one of the safest floors among late-round quarterbacks, backed by elite weapons and a proven offensive system. Currently being drafted as the QB20, Stafford represents excellent value for managers employing a late-round quarterback strategy.
Despite dealing with multiple injuries in 2024, Stafford still finished as the QB14, averaging 17.8 fantasy points per game. Our Assistant Coach efficiency metrics show that when Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and Puka Nacua were all healthy, the Rams quarterback averaged 20.3 fantasy points per game – production that would have ranked him as a top-10 fantasy quarterback over a full season.
Entering 2025 with a clean bill of health and the continued development of Nacua alongside the reliable Kupp gives Stafford one of the best receiving duos in the NFL. The addition of rookie Blake Corum to complement Kyren Williams in the backfield should also help balance the offense and create more efficient passing opportunities.
While Stafford lacks the ceiling of younger, more mobile options, his proven production, elite weapons, and Sean McVay's quarterback-friendly system make him an ideal target for managers looking to wait on the position without sacrificing weekly stability.
Draft Strategy Implications
The presence of these high-upside quarterback options in the later rounds supports a draft strategy that prioritizes running backs and receivers early. Our Assistant Coach draft analysis shows that teams that waited until Round 10 or later to select their first quarterback won their leagues at a 14% higher rate than those who selected quarterbacks in Rounds 4-9 last season.
For managers in superflex or two-quarterback leagues, targeting one of these sleepers as your QB2 can provide significant roster flexibility, allowing you to invest premium draft capital at more volatile positions like running back and wide receiver.
As always, quarterback streaming remains a viable strategy in single-quarterback formats, but having one of these high-upside options as your primary starter with weekly streaming as a backup plan represents the optimal approach based on our 2025 projections.