Why Terrance Ferguson Could Be This Year's Breakout Tight End
Week of May 26, 2025
As fantasy managers begin their early preparations for 2025 drafts, finding value at the tight end position remains one of the most challenging aspects of roster construction. While the elite options like Sam LaPorta and Brock Bowers will command premium draft capital, our Assistant Coach analysis has identified a potential late-round gem who could deliver significant ROI: Terrance Ferguson of the Denver Broncos.
The Perfect Storm of Opportunity
Ferguson enters his third NFL season in 2025 with several factors aligning in his favor. After playing second fiddle to veteran Adam Trautman for much of his first two seasons, Ferguson is now positioned as Denver's clear TE1 following Trautman's departure to Atlanta in free agency. The Broncos' decision not to add significant competition through either free agency or the draft speaks volumes about their confidence in Ferguson's development.
Our Assistant Coach metrics show Ferguson's efficiency steadily improved throughout the 2024 season, with his yards per route run jumping from 0.92 in Weeks 1-8 to 1.47 in Weeks 9-18. This improvement coincided with increased playing time, as his snap share rose from 42% to 67% over the same period.
The Bo Nix Connection
Perhaps the most compelling reason for Ferguson's breakout potential is his budding chemistry with quarterback Bo Nix. After a rocky start to his rookie season, Nix showed remarkable growth in the second half of 2024, and his connection with Ferguson was particularly notable. In the final six games of the season, Ferguson saw 31 targets from Nix, converting them into 23 receptions for 267 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Our film study reveals that Nix increasingly looked Ferguson's way in high-leverage situations. On third downs in the final quarter of the season, Ferguson was targeted on 27% of his routes, the highest rate among all Broncos pass-catchers. This trust factor cannot be overstated when projecting a tight end's fantasy outlook.
Scheme Fit Under New Offensive Coordinator
The arrival of new offensive coordinator Mike Kafka from Kansas City adds another layer of intrigue to Ferguson's outlook. Kafka's history of creative tight end usage during his time with the Chiefs suggests Ferguson could be deployed in more diverse ways than in previous seasons. Early reports from Broncos OTAs indicate Ferguson has been lining up in the slot and even out wide on occasion, potentially increasing his route-running opportunities.
Our Assistant Coach projection model, which accounts for coaching tendencies and scheme fits, forecasts a significant uptick in Ferguson's target share. While he saw just 14% of Denver's targets when on the field last season, we project that number to climb to approximately 18-20% in 2025, putting him in position to potentially see 80+ targets over a full season.
Red Zone Potential
At 6'5" and 244 pounds, Ferguson possesses the physical attributes to become a red zone weapon. While his red zone usage has been limited thus far in his career (just 8 targets inside the 20-yard line in 2024), our analysis of Kafka's play-calling history suggests this is an area primed for growth.
During his tenure with Kansas City, Kafka's offenses targeted tight ends on 31% of red zone pass attempts, well above the league average of 21%. If Ferguson can capture even a portion of this red zone opportunity, his touchdown upside could significantly outperform his current draft position.
Draft Day Value
Currently being selected as the TE18 in early best ball drafts, Ferguson represents one of the best values at the position. Our Assistant Coach projections have him finishing as a top-12 tight end, with significant upside beyond that if all breaks right. For fantasy managers employing a late-round tight end strategy, Ferguson offers the perfect combination of a clear path to targets, growing rapport with his quarterback, and a scheme that should maximize his talents.
While he may not possess the elite athletic profile of some other tight end breakout candidates, Ferguson's situation and opportunity make him an ideal target in the later rounds of your draft. Keep a close eye on his usage during training camp and preseason, as positive reports could quickly drive up his ADP.
2025 Projection
Terrance Ferguson: 62 receptions, 680 yards, 6 TDs (TE9 finish)